california is not in play. but the truth is, it does shift, and so the different states rise up in different elections and become the focus of attention. and it really does make it an election where the whole country has to be paid attention to. >> only two democrats have reached 50% of the vote in ohio since 1940. ohio exemplifies the paradox of how this is unfolding. 32% among noncollege white men and 39% among noncollege white women nationally in our abc tracking poll through the whole run. in ohio he's ten points better among both of those groups. the bain story, the bain story has a cultural and emotional resonance in the midwest. ohio, the idea of the rich guy coming to town, shutting down a factory and taking the profits, it resonates. it detonates. >> george, that early spending in ohio on those bain ads? >> if it works, mr. obama will probably have a mandate not to be bain capital. but, there's another side of this, also, mitt romney may have been the guy that shut down some plants. barack obama is the